Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Ventura County Demand versus Inventory - March 2009

Here is an updated version of the chart I made in early January & late February comparing Demand and Inventory in Ventura County. Demand is defined as pending and contingent transactions and Inventory is active inventory. Please note if you are comparing the earlier January graph to this graph the scale on the left has changed due to increased inventory and demand.
I'd just re-read my comments from February the situation has merely gone down the same path since then. I wonder if we will start having inventory issues by mid-summer or if "shadow inventory" will save the day.


Tom said...

I really like your site as i live here in Simi. I have kept a spreadsheet for years on Simi SFH since this is where I want to live and buy. And I am seeing exactly what you are demand for sales is almost 90% plus below 600K. Inventory has been on a long slow decline and the median list has started to rise, however the $/sq ft has kept its downward trend. I agree that with the moratorium's here and all the shadow inventory we could see low inventory by summer at the low end. But now that foreclosures are moving up to the high end I think sales by the end of summer will drop significantly and then we will have alot of foreclosures at the high which will lead to the next & final major leg down in pricing

Rob Dawg said...

The "blue curve" pulls the "red curve."

One interesting caveat; We are still somewhat an agricultural county. Some of those 1800sf built in 1924 houses at $480/sf are also on 18 ac with 12 ac producing and including vested well rights.

E.D., thanks for your excellent efforts.

Effective Demand said...


Welcome to the blog. It will be an interesting next few months to see if demand is continued or falls off and was just pulled forward.

Rob Dawg,

Thanks for the kind words.