Wednesday, January 7, 2009

More on Demand vs Inventory for Ventura County

(click to enlarge)

This is a chart of demand versus inventory. I think because of slow processing times for loans and short sales overstates demand a bit at any one point in time. Right now we are at or near a seasonal low for inventory. Demand is clearly concentrated at the low end and based on sales this year which were at or near all-time lows for their perspective months throught the year we have further to fall. Based on volumes alone I think the low end will still decline significantly. Another thing is clear the above $600,000 market has a lot further to fall and should bear the majority of the price declines through this next year.

This is the Inventory and Demand broken up in deciles and the delta for each point in the market.


jjm said...

Thanks for the stats. This confirms what I have been seeing in the Ventura beach areas. Home sellers at the higher end are in complete denial. They actually are listing their homes at 10-30% above 2006 peak prices. Of course the homes are just sitting there.

Their hand will be forced soon because I imagine quite a few are going to have a recast of their Option ARM loans shortly. Or they will be losing their job.

I sold my beach home in July of 2006 and have been waiting patiently to get another house. Prices still have a ways to go down before I will be tempted.

Effective Demand said...

"Thanks for the stats."

You are most welcome!