Wednesday, January 14, 2009

If red was good we'd be doing alright..


Private mortgage insurance provider PMI released their Winter 2009 report today. For the Los Angeles MSA they predict a 99.8% chance that home prices will be lower two years from where they are today. Many mortgage insurers have tighter guidelines for California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida than they do for the other states, even those other states they classify as declining. Based on the above picture you can see why the insurers and lenders are extra cautious. On page 8 of their report they show how good their model is relative to their back testing from 1985 forward.

2 comments:

Mike said...

Nice map. I thought it was just fire season again ;)

Effective Demand said...

In 2006 they were calling them 'Neutron Bomb' mortgages. When they blew up they'd leave the house and remove the borrower.