Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Ventura County August 2008 Sales

August sales dropped 2.2% from the previous month with the median price declining $20,000, or 4.7% from the previous month. Comparing to the year before, a time of the lowest sales since Dataquick has been recording sales for Ventura, sales increased 7.7% and the median price declined 30.4%. We are passed the point of peak inventory and passed the low point in sales. From here on out it will just be sales muddling through as prices continue to decline. If the loan servicers get motivated we should see a flattening of sales (at the cost of price) instead of a steep seasonal drop off. I think the servicers will stay motivated but government intervention is constantly looming and I think some are trying to hold off the recognition of losses as long as possible.

Monday, September 22, 2008

San Fernando Valley August 2008 sales charts

I don't see the official stats released on the SRAR site but a friend emailed me the official stats for August.

August official sales stats are out for the San Fernando Valley. SFH sales came in at 666 which was a 7.11% decline MoM and 20.65% improvement YoY. SFH median was $425,000 which was a 2.3 % decline MoM and 34.11% decline YoY. My guesstimates were ~700 for SFH sales, off about 5%. 2 months in a row I estimated 5% too high for preliminary sales, next month I will use 10% instead of 15% for my initial estimates.

Condo sales came in at 172 which was 16.1% decline MoM and -8.5% decline YoY. The median price Condo for July was $275,0000 off 1.8% MoM and down 29.3% YoY. My guess was ~176 sales for Condos which is getting pretty close. Condos continues to perform horribly.
Since the rest of the stats haven't been released I don't have pendings, I will update this post when I get official numbers.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

CAR 2009 Forecast

As far as I know the 2009 forecast wasn't supposed to be released until October. But here is a sneak peak released a bit earlier.

I think the CAR doesn't have any data models or anything sophisticated they just forecast sales and prices +/- 5% and then adjust throughout the year based on incoming data.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Initial San Fernando Valley readings.

Here are the initial readings for the San Fernando Valley for August. Late reporters will bring the sold numbers higher, it is an estimate but I predict the numbers will increase about 15%.

Current Single Family Home sales (estimate):
611 (* 1.15 = ~700 sales)

188 Flagged as REO
93 Flagged as Short Sale
374 Flagged as Vacant (can include Short Sale or REO)
Current sold Single Family Home median price:

Current Condo sales (estimate):
153 (*1.15 = ~176 sales)

48 Flagged as REO
24 Flagged as Short Sale
107 Flagged as Vacant (can include REO or Short Sale properties)
Current sold Condo median price:

These readings are basically flat from the previous month, Pending sales are currently at 950 for condos & SFH and backup offers are at 336.

Inventory stands at 6,646. SFH inventory is 4,957 of which 2,299 has Short Sale or REO flag set and an 1,426 vacant but some REO and Short sale inventory is in there.. Condo inventory is 1,689 of which 877 has the Short Sale or REO flag set and 748 have the vacant flag set. I had all the vacants parsed out from the REO and Short sale but a couple of the numbers looked off so I just reported all the vacants instead. There are definitely some vacants that are REO but do not have the REO flag set. I think it is safe to say that the majority of inventory is made up of motivated/distressed sellers.

I'll update the graphs when the numbers become official. Until then here is a few potpourri items to read over:
Chinese Banks Cut Fannie, Freddie Debt: Foreign investment has kept mortgage rates low. Now some foreign investors are backing away. A bad economy could still keep rates low but would be bad for the housing market.
Preliminary 2009-2013 Mortgage Volume Forecasts: iEmergent is predicting a 4% drop in purchase volume for 2009.
MBA mortgage delinquency survey comes out Friday, it should be a doozy.