Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Initial San Fernando Valley readings.

Here are the initial readings for the San Fernando Valley for August. Late reporters will bring the sold numbers higher, it is an estimate but I predict the numbers will increase about 15%.

Current Single Family Home sales (estimate):
611 (* 1.15 = ~700 sales)

188 Flagged as REO
93 Flagged as Short Sale
374 Flagged as Vacant (can include Short Sale or REO)
Current sold Single Family Home median price:

Current Condo sales (estimate):
153 (*1.15 = ~176 sales)

48 Flagged as REO
24 Flagged as Short Sale
107 Flagged as Vacant (can include REO or Short Sale properties)
Current sold Condo median price:

These readings are basically flat from the previous month, Pending sales are currently at 950 for condos & SFH and backup offers are at 336.

Inventory stands at 6,646. SFH inventory is 4,957 of which 2,299 has Short Sale or REO flag set and an 1,426 vacant but some REO and Short sale inventory is in there.. Condo inventory is 1,689 of which 877 has the Short Sale or REO flag set and 748 have the vacant flag set. I had all the vacants parsed out from the REO and Short sale but a couple of the numbers looked off so I just reported all the vacants instead. There are definitely some vacants that are REO but do not have the REO flag set. I think it is safe to say that the majority of inventory is made up of motivated/distressed sellers.

I'll update the graphs when the numbers become official. Until then here is a few potpourri items to read over:
Chinese Banks Cut Fannie, Freddie Debt: Foreign investment has kept mortgage rates low. Now some foreign investors are backing away. A bad economy could still keep rates low but would be bad for the housing market.
Preliminary 2009-2013 Mortgage Volume Forecasts: iEmergent is predicting a 4% drop in purchase volume for 2009.
MBA mortgage delinquency survey comes out Friday, it should be a doozy.

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