Tuesday, November 30, 2010

San Fernando Valley home sales report - October 2010

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for October 2010 came in at 532 which is down 8.43% MoM and down 19.76% YoY. This is the thirteenth straight month of YoY declines and the second worst October on record for Single Family Home sales. The median price for single family homes came in at $385,000 which is down 2.53% MoM and up 1.28% YoY. The market is completed stagnated, the administration is keeping the motivated inventory generally off the market and there is no market clearing event so sales and buyers choices will continue to be horrible going forward. New pendings last month were at levels suggesting November will come in at October levels.

Condo sales came in at 168 which is down 13.40% MoM and down 26.31% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $220,000 which is even MoM and down 6.38% YoY. Relative to SFH condos have been performing better but that is because there is more motivated condo supply than SFH. Sales are still horrible in historical context, just not as bad as SFH.

Based on October pendings (green line) the predictor (red line) suggest sales for November coming in about even.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Ventura County October 2010 Home Sales

Dataquick reported home sales for Ventura County for October 2010 today. Home sales came in at 619 down 29.6% YoY and down 9.2% MoM. The median sales price came in at $355,000 down 2.7% YoY and down 4.0% MoM. This was in line with the prediction I made at the beginning of the month for closed sales. Currently Novembers pace is running basically flat to slightly raised. These sales numbers are horrible and are only beaten historically by the sales numbers that were posted after the subprime and Alt-A market imploded and most of the lenders weren't geared up for FHA or Conventional back in the fall of 2007. Prices will continue falling with a sales pace as anemic as this. It is a post tax break sugar rush let down but the question becomes where the demand will come from? The best case scenario is everyone looking towards spring and hoping there is some level of pent up demand waiting for the first of the year to buy.

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - October 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County October 2010. Based on me taking statistics a bit later than usual and adjusting for recent changes in the underlying data sources I think the Dataquick number will be around 600 for October. This is very low sales levels usually only seen around the winter months. Sellers keep cutting prices looking for buyers but its just a slow time of year (see Mortgage Purchase Applications Index for proof) so things don't look to be getting better anytime soon. Interest rates are set up to reach sub 4% levels and supply is muted and adjusting price slowly to the new reality. Stagnation appears to be the case still for the next few months (and probably beyond).

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - October 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for October 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for October. But, it appears that sales should be at the same levels as August perhaps slightly weaker.