Friday, July 30, 2010

Weekly inventory charts are back up

A week and a half ago google broke their charting widgets. They just got them running again today and I republished last weeks results. Please let me know if you are experiencing any issues with the weekly inventory charts.

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

San Fernando Valley home sales report - June 2010

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for June 2010 came in at 649 which is down 4.42% MoM and down 16.26% YoY. This is the ninth straight month of YoY declines and the WORST June on record. The median price for single family homes came in at $385,000 which is even MoM and up 2.67% YoY. Residential inventory is officialy up YoY. New pendings last month dropped below June 2008 (which was worse than 2009) levels.

Condo sales came in at 262 which is up 23.00% MoM and up 11.01% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $230,000 which is down 1.29% MoM and up 1.77% YoY. This was the best month for condo sales since July 2007. Clearly the larger condo supply and tax credit deadline had people choosing condos over SFH in a desperate attempt to get the tax credit. The only strength in the market is in the condo space and I think that is due more to the amount of motivated supply (whole condo projects going defunct). Condo pendings aren't strong going forward but they are doing much better than SFH.

Based on pendings (the top green line) we should see a lower closed sale for July but considering how muted June was I think we very well could see even lower sales as back on market properties stay on market instead of being sold again.

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Ventura County June 2010 Home Sales

Dataquick reported home sales for Ventura County for June 2010 today. Home sales came in at 890 up 5.5% YoY. The median sales price came in at $384,000 up 5.20% YoY. Volume was stronger than I predicted at the beginning of the month, late reporters as a percentage of sales was much greater than normal. The possibility of the tax credit running out really caused quite a rush in closings. Rising median is due to mix shift due to the low end running out of inventory the most plus some seasonal strength in the mid-level houses as those sellers have been cutting price to compete for buyers. As far as sales volume this was the high water mark for the year, the question is just how far we fall from here.

Monday, July 5, 2010

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - June 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County for June 2010. Sales are still very low, with late reporters I expect the official Dataquick numbers will be about even at around 840 sales. This continued stagnation in the market is the same boring story, less supply due to government intervention trying to keep prices high at all costs. If you watch the weekly inventory report you can see the market weakening even in the face of sub-5% rates, contingents and pendings falling, sales stagnant. All this with massive incentives and choked off supply.. it is clearly a vain attempt to keep the market propped up. I fully expect more housing incentives to hit the market they will just have to wait until after the November elections.

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - June 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for June 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for May. It appears that sales should be even YoY when all the late reporters are counted. These sales levels are extremely weak historically and just an indication of this highly engineered market. With the end of the tax credit it appears it is going out with a whimper not a bang, it looks like the SFV will be down slightly YoY when the late reporters check in.