Sunday, March 15, 2009

Weekly Active/Pending counts SFV & Ventura - 03/14/09

Here are the weekly inventory and pending counts for Ventura County and the San Fernando Valley. For the legend Single Family Homes is abbreviated SFH, Ventura County is abbreviated VC and San Fernando Valley is abbreviated SFV.

I'm seeing agents put signs on properties but not on the MLS in my driving around. I think the hope is that they can keep the sale "in-house" in the face of the lack of much "good" inventory on the market. So if you are looking right now make sure to drive around the area you are interested in, you might see some places for sale you won't see online.

Update: Please see the home page for the latest graphs, I am reverting earlier weeks to text to maintain site speed.

San Fernando Valley:
Single Family Homes
Active - Total 3011
Active - Short sale 1117
Active - REO 348
Backup - Total 437
Backup - Short sale 191
Backup - REO 88
Pending - Total 1329
Pending - Short sale 493
Pending - REO 528
Distressed active / Total active = 48.7%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 76.8%

Active - Total 1031
Active - Short sale 513
Active - REO 151
Backup - Total 140
Backup - Short sale 66
Backup - REO 36
Pending - Total 395
Pending - Short sale 149
Pending - REO 167
Distressed active / Total active = 64.4%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 80.0%

Ventura County:
Single Family Homes
Active - Total 1898
Active - Short sale 455
Active - REO 186
Contingent - Total 675
Contingent - Short sale 436
Contingent - REO 95
Pending - Total 651
Pending - Short sale 137
Pending - REO 321
Distressed active / Total active = 33.8%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 70.4%
Release from Showing 264

Active - Total 644
Active - Short sale 187
Active - REO 103
Contingent - Total 229
Contingent - Short sale 150
Contingent - REO 40
Pending - Total 224
Pending - Short sale 45
Pending - REO 125
Distressed active / Total active = 45.0%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 75.9%
Release from Showing 64


Anonymous said...

Interesting that inventory is slowly dropping. Just the REO restrictions or something more you think?

Effective Demand said...

Demand is high on the low end a lot of people are deciding this is the time to buy. I think this is because of the tax credit.

In combination with the moratoriums and all the sellers waiting to see what kind of bailout they get I think this has slowed a lot of inventory coming on the market.

You can see all the demand is on the low end:

I think we are running out of good inventory over the short term. Due to the (I believe temporary) uptick in demand in a short space of time and the lenders trying not to foreclose as much as possible. If you look at my links on the right hand side, the trustee sale posting companies. They are delaying foreclosures en masse still.

Rob Dawg said...

Do you have a theory as to why so little of what we both know is a building supply pressure is not showing up?

Keep me in mind when you get a screaming deal for producing acreage and a modest home. You know exactly what I mean. The 60-180 acre Las Posas built in 1962 inherited by the oldest son mature property.

Effective Demand said...


If you look at the trustee sale links on the right hand side. Very few homes are getting foreclosed on. The banks are under tremendous pressure to modify loans and are giving away a lot of mods. The political pressure is enormous and we are seeing the end result of that on the market. Sales should start slowing again as the politicians have their way.. that is until the economy overwhelms it all and/or people just walk.

Also the rental market has been pretty active, I had some stats downloaded a couple weeks ago regarding that but have to take the time to massage it to get it in a presentable format.

I think low inventory and low sales would be a hallmark of a recessionary enviroment. Everyone hunkering down and just distressed sellers (or realistic sellers realizing it isn't coming back anytime soon) selling.

The supply side issues are amplified by what I think is the temporary pull forward of demand due to the tax credit and drop in interest rates.

djviking said...

Any thoughts why V.C. contingencies are so high vs SFV?
Thanks for the data and thoughts..good comments.

Effective Demand said...


Some guesswork here but I think it has a bit to do with practices of agents in different areas. Some will (and are supposed to) put a home as contingent if the seller accepts and offer but it still awaits lender approvals. I think in the Valley they are more likely to leave it Active OR set it to Pending instead of contingent/backup.

The other factor in short sales is that they usually take muchlonger to close. Since the buyers preference are REOs first, Short sales second.. the valley higher supply of REOs means fewer short sales and fewer properties sitting a long time at contingent status.