Tuesday, March 24, 2009

More San Fernando Valley home sale information - February 2009

Here is the various Back On Market (BOM) ratios for February 2009 home sales. Note, the local REALTOR® group uses the BOM as a % of sales as their preferred metric.

Here are total sales, total pending and total BOM while pendings leveled off there is still a large number of homes under contract and trying to clear contingencies. I'd expect pendings to rise significantly going into summer. I am also predicting that once this rush of buyers clears through the system we will see year-over-year sales declines around July or August. Currently lenders are being hammered so I could see more of a steady rise of sales instead of a leap as the remaining understaffed lenders work off the backlog of pendings.

This graph is identical the the graph above except for the red line. This red line is a sales estimate based on BOM and current month pendings shifted forward 60 days in time to account for escrows and reporting lag. I have no idea if it is a valid way to look at the market I'm just going to follow it for a bit to see how well it does. It is predicting total sales of around 770 next month which feels a bit low but in the ballpark.

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