Saturday, March 28, 2009

Weekly Active/Pending counts SFV & Ventura - 03/28/09

Here are the weekly inventory and pending counts for Ventura County and the San Fernando Valley. For the legend Single Family Homes is abbreviated SFH, Ventura County is abbreviated VC and San Fernando Valley is abbreviated SFV. For readers who might not know, REO are bank owned foreclosures and short sales are owners hoping to sell the home for less than what is owed on the mortgage balance.

Update: Please see the home page for the latest graphs, I am reverting earlier weeks to text to maintain site speed.

San Fernando Valley:
Single Family Homes
Active - Total 2894
Active - Short sale 1052
Active - REO 339
Backup - Total 462
Backup - Short sale 185
Backup - REO 94
Pending - Total 1379
Pending - Short sale 528
Pending - REO 532
Distressed active / Total active = 48.1%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 76.9%

Active - Total 983
Active - Short sale 498
Active - REO 138
Backup - Total 159
Backup - Short sale 78
Backup - REO 37
Pending - Total 392
Pending - Short sale 140
Pending - REO 171
Distressed active / Total active = 64.7%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 79.3%

Ventura County:
Single Family Homes
Active - Total 1802
Active - Short sale 400
Active - REO 155
Contingent - Total 767
Contingent - Short sale 480
Contingent - REO 108
Pending - Total 646
Pending - Short sale 129
Pending - REO 302
Distressed active / Total active = 30.8%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 66.7%
Release from Showing 291

Active - Total 634
Active - Short sale 190
Active - REO 91
Contingent - Total 265
Contingent - Short sale 178
Contingent - REO 43
Pending - Total 213
Pending - Short sale 46
Pending - REO 109
Distressed active / Total active = 44.3%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 72.8%
Release from Showing 68


Rob Dawg said...

I don't get it. Are we running out of people who "need" to sell? Is there a growing undercurrent of people waiting to sell?

Personally I think there's a lot people squatting in the bank's house daring the bank to foreclose. it didn't take them long after the first moratorium to figure out the new rules of this game.

Effective Demand said...

I think the inventory issue is all about the moratoriums.

S.B. 1137 - July 8th

When that moratorium lifted it ran into the holiday foreclosure moratorium. Fannie/Freddie, BofA, major servicers reduced foreclosures starting Nov. 20, 2008 to Jan 31, 2008.

So Feb 1st the spigot opened a bit until Feb 13th when Obama said he was coming out with a plan on March 6th. So most major servicers stopped new foreclosure actions until then. Then on March 6th when the plan was announced the servicers extended the moratorium until March 31st to make sure they were helping "preventable foreclosures".

Needless to say Wednesday I expect some new foreclosure moratorium in place!

All of these moratoriums were combined with the loan mod effort. I think many stopped paying and said give me a good loan mod "or else". And the banks had no way to call the bluff for 9 months.

On the right hand side of my homepage there are links to 3 trustee sale posting sites. If you watch them weekly for a favorite area you'll get a good feel for what is going on for the trustee sales for any particular time.

Effective Demand said...

I will also add that there is more than normal amount of inventory with a sign in the ground but not on the MLS. And conversely, on the MLS but no sign in the ground.

I think people are trying to manage inventory and double end the commissions.

Rob Dawg said...

I will also add that there is more than normal amount of inventory with a sign in the ground but not on the MLS.

Red and white signs for certain. Is KW a snaeky way of FSBO or some other MLM type scam?

HelloKitty said...

Well with far fewer sales per realtor they must be pulling out all the tricks to double end the few deals they do get.

Also it seems like the 8k tax credit will steal buyers from next year so sales next year will drop off more due to this expiring. BUT I expect a new 8k tax credit next year, or it will be permanent perhaps.

Mike said...

I dont really understand it either. I went "open housing" with my wife last weekend, looking for stuff in the 400-650k range and we still arent seeing anything that gets us excited. Maybe I am one of the few people in Ventura that still believes half a million dollars is a lot of money. We were looking at mid 90's construction with original sales price in the low $300s. Many still priced over $600k.

I watch homes come on the market in some of the more expensive areas and many are priced like we are still in bubble mode. Beach area homes purchased in 2005-6 are still being listed at 20% higher than the previous purchase price. Of course, they arent selling, but this is very telling of how many people still just dont get it yet. I see homes on the market for $1.5M that are probably worth around half of that (and they went for around $600k in the mid 90's).

Still, I have friends and relatives constantly asking me when I am going to buy because they think the prices are so low right now. It boggles my mind. They think I am nuts when I tell them where I think home prices are headed even after I show them charts, data, etc.