Here is an updated version of the chart I made in early January comparing Demand and Inventory in Ventura County. Demand is defined as pending and contingent transactions and Inventory is active inventory. Please note if you are comparing the earlier graph to this graph the scale on the left has changed due to increased inventory and demand.
We are seeing the increase in seasonal demand on the chart and the strength of the lower end though we are seeing demand outpace new inventory pretty much across all areas under a million. I think the housing credit is giving a temporary boost to demand which we will see come out in the sale numbers in April and May with a tempering of demand after then (my prediction). Inventory is being hampered by the foreclosure moratoriums, many which are lifted this next week but the new CA budget law 90 day delay will have an unknown effect. I think if distressed inventory continues to be hampered coming on the market we will see a sales slow down and the median price rise due to mix shift.
4 comments:
Thanks for the update...appreciate the close scrutiny during these crazy "adjusting to stimulus/moratoriums" + spring bounce times....d.j.
A median price rise...that's exactly what NAR will be salivating over so they can pump their BS about how housing is rebounding.
And then, I'll venture to say that a bunch of idiots will be back at it again trying get into before "being priced out."
It never ends.
Thanks for the data!
If I were a potential buyer in this environment I'd be absolutely paralyzed waiting for the State to get its act together.
I think the tax credit is pulling forward demand but $8,000 is about a month depreciation for a good month over this last year. If true about the pulling forward demand we should see a fall off/flattening of sales during the middle of the year.
There isn't a reason to rush but people are very eager to call bottom. The nesting/provider instinct is strong and logic and emotion don't go together.
I agree with Rob 100% and I'll take it a step further. Until people can see if the mortgage tax deduction is "sacred" or not I wouldn't be making any long term financial decisions based on it or not. At the very least people should reasonably discount its effect. As it is right now I think people overestimate their deduction.
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