Saturday, February 14, 2009

Weekly Active/Pending counts SFV & Ventura - 02/14/09

I'm going to post the weekly inventory counts for Ventura County and the San Fernando Valley as more time goes by this data set will become more useful. I have broken out the Short sale and Foreclosure (REO) inventory to better track demand. Eventually the data will either turn into tables or graphs but right now I am putting it out there so others can find and use it for there own purposes.

San Fernando Valley:
Single Family Homes
Active - Total 3381
Active - Short sale 1296
Active - REO 436
Backup - Total 378
Backup - Short sale 145
Backup - REO 88
Pending - Total 1220
Pending - Short sale 450
Pending - REO 507
Distressed active / Total active = 51.2%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 78.4%

Active - Total 1134
Active - Short sale 565
Active - REO 181
Backup - Total 104
Backup - Short sale 49
Backup - REO 29
Pending - Total 391
Pending - Short sale 125
Pending - REO 198
Distressed active / Total active = 65.7%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 82.6%

Ventura County:
Single Family Homes
Active - Total 1955
Active - Short sale 490
Active - REO 213
Contingent - Total 610
Contingent - Short sale 395
Contingent - REO 96
Pending - Total 661
Pending - Short sale 124
Pending - REO 363
Distressed active / Total active = 35.9%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 73.6%
Release from Showing 260

Active - Total 694
Active - Short sale 211
Active - REO 129
Contingent - Total 192
Contingent - Short sale 126
Contingent - REO 42
Pending - Total 207
Pending - Short sale 38
Pending - REO 111
Distressed active / Total active = 48.9%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 71.9%
Release from Showing 65

One thing I am noticing is that the Ventura market is running out of foreclosures. The absorption rate is very good because the lenders are pricing the inventory and getting it off the books quickly. Without a new supply of REOs coming on the market soon sales will start to slow when compared to last year, I would guess we would see this slowdown starting mid-year unless REOs pick up. With the foreclosure moratoriums and all that going on I am not hopeful for new supply picking up anytime soon.

I was in a house today in Ventura County that was priced slightly above the price it sold at in 2001. Needless to say there was quite active amount of people going to see it. At one point there was actually four different groups of people with their agents waiting to show (I drove by at different times of the day to gauge the interest). Even with the economic downturn there is clearly latent demand waiting to be filled, it is just most don't have the means to get a home without a return to traditional, rational pricing. This was one of the few that were rationally priced and I have no doubt it will go quickly on Monday at over list price. I don't see that so much a sign of strength of the market but a lack of supply in the price range where most can afford homes. Unfortunately, I think the moratoriums are going to hit Ventura County at a bad time and freeze the market a bit. If the lenders start getting motivated on short sales this might replace the REOs as market leader.

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