Monday, February 9, 2009

Short Sale & Foreclosure for San Fernando Valley & Ventura County - January 2009

San Fernando Valley:

Ventura County:

Here are the short sale and foreclosure sales numbers for January 2009 for the San Fernando Valley and Ventura County. There was no dramatic change in ratios with distressed sales still hovering around 70% of the market. Short sales are still making that steady progression as a larger percentage of sales, I think with servicers pre-approving short sales and REO inventory on the market being managed to keep only a 1-2 month supply around at any one time that short sales will continue to grow. We should see the total percentage of distressed sales drop as we come into the selling season but the weekly inventory reports still show that unmotivated sellers are still finding it enormously difficult getting a home sold.

5 comments:

Noz said...

Do you honestly think there is going to be a selling season? And if so, what will be like?

Effective Demand said...

If you look at my last SFV chart and look at the lows each year it is clear this year will be a "higher" low than the year before (pretty simple for that to happen since last year was such an aberration). But there really isn't too much indicating we are going to have "higher highs" for the coming months, REO inventory is off due to all the moratoriums, the economy is deteriorating. Sales from April forward may be 10-15% more than the previous year because of lower rates and the tax credit. But I don't think we will see much more improvement than that. If we start getting more inventory on the market then we might see better sales. Right now I think any upside is muted.

If on the weekly inventory checks pendings start spiking, we will know closings will in the not too distant future.

Rob Dawg said...

VenCo infinitely more REOs y-o-y.

Anonymous said...

Can your listing/pending numbers and sales numbers be combined to determine what portion of short sales are selling before delisting or being foreclosed?

Effective Demand said...

Rob,

The REO flag wasn't part of the system all of last year. And once it was introduced it took awhile for people to set it. There are still listings out there which are REO or SS but don't have the flag set but they amount to about 2-3% in VC (higher in the valley).

Anon,

I could conceivably do this but not in a clean automated way (well, automated enough) and certainly not weekly. So its value would be limited. Since I have limited time I won't be able to run these stats but I will think on it if I come up with a clever way of doing it I will start posting it.

You could just look at a place like http://www.fidelityasap.com and then match those listing that are going to Trustee sales with listings that appeared on redfin. That will get you a ballpark.