Tuesday, February 3, 2009

San Fernando Valley Home sales estimates for January 2009

Here are the preliminary sales and price estimates for the San Fernando Valley for January 2009. Single Family Home (SFH) sales are estimated to be 540 with the median price of approximately $349,000. Condo sales are estimated to be 165 with the median price of approximately $220,000. Sales are clearly not going to match the record lows we saw last year. While the yearly comparisons are easy looking at sales historically still shows they are weak but improving. This improvement comes from distressed sales rationalizing the market and prices falling. The economy faltering will probably mute any upside in sales for this next year. We will probably see a mild improvement overall for 2009 but I don't think the planned government programs (lowering of mortgage rates, foreclosure relief and tax credit) will be enough to do brunt the decline in prices or goose sales for the year much more than 15-20%.

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