San Fernando Valley Home sales estimates for February 2009

Here are the preliminary sales and price estimates for the San Fernando Valley for February 2009. Single Family Home (SFH) sales are estimated to be 465 with the median price of approximately $350,000. Condo sales are estimated to be 145 with the median price of approximately $195,000. Sales are still very weak historically but off the all time low which was set in February 2008. I am seeing a surge in pending transactions which I attribute to both seasonality, as February is the seasonal low point, and people rushing to claim the tax credit. I think the tax credit rush is a temporary effect and sales will be muted by the deteriorating local economy as we move into mid-year.

San Fernando Valley Home sales estimates for January 2009

Here are the preliminary sales and price estimates for the San Fernando Valley for January 2009. Single Family Home (SFH) sales are estimated to be 540 with the median price of approximately $349,000. Condo sales are estimated to be 165 with the median price of approximately $220,000. Sales are clearly not going to match the record lows we saw last year. While the yearly comparisons are easy looking at sales historically still shows they are weak but improving. This improvement comes from distressed sales rationalizing the market and prices falling. The economy faltering will probably mute any upside in sales for this next year. We will probably see a mild improvement overall for 2009 but I don't think the planned government programs (lowering of mortgage rates, foreclosure relief and tax credit) will be enough to do brunt the decline in prices or goose sales for the year much more than 15-20%.

Preliminary December 2008 San Fernando Valley Home sales

Here are my estimates for December 2008 sales for the San Fernando Valley, Single Family Home sales look to come in around 730 and median price of approximately $365,000. Condo Sales are estimated around 230 and median of $225,000. The holidays could mean we have a larger than normal number of late reporters, I will know more about that in a couple of weeks.

The strength in the market was completely based on distressed sales. We may have had a quarter end where banks are trying to maximize the number of sales and book the losses into a "kitchen sink" type quarter. Or a more pessimistic view might be that the banks see things getting worse and worked to drive volume to keep from being overwhelmed. The economy and continued credit tightening are the significant negatives for the market. Low interest rates and continued liquidity in conforming mortgages is about the only positives right now.

Preliminary November 2008 San Fernando Valley Home sales

Here are my estimates for November 2008 sales for the San Fernando Valley, Single Family Home sales look to come in around 630 and median price of approximately $385,000. Condo Sales are estimated around 202 and median of $245,000. Seasonality and lending guideline changes hitting the market hurt the market in November there is a possibility that the Thanksgiving holiday will cause a higher number than normal late reporters. We will know more about that in 2 weeks.

The issues that will be affecting the market for December and January outside of seasonality will be the Federal Reserve targeting longer term interest rates trying to reduce them. This has brought mortgage rates near 5% for vanilla, well qualified borrowers. Loan modification plans are starting to be rolled out en masse trying to relieve the foreclosure pressure. The headwinds to all that is continued contraction of mortgage credit and lending guidelines and of course the economy.

Preliminary October 2008 San Fernando Valley Home sales

Here are my preliminary calculations for San Fernando Valley October 2008 sales and prices. For single family homes (SFH) I estimate sales will be around 720 and median price coming in around $405,000. Sales could be even higher, I lowered my sales estimate based on two factors, One - The changes in underwriting guidelines on Oct 1st means that more sales were weighted towards the beginning of the month and Two - I've been consistently overestimating sales. SFH sales look like they will be at or above the best level of the year. This would rank as the third weakest October on record for SFH sales. From a seasonality aspect 10 out of the last 24 September to October periods have shown an increase so that fact that sales will probably beat the previous month isn't a very big deal. For condos, I estimate sales will come in around 195 and median price will be around $240,500. The medians can shift a lot on low volume so I could easily see a median up in the $250,000+ range by the time the late reporters come in.

San Fernando Valley September sales estimates

I'm a little late calculating my preliminary SFV numbers this month, SFH sales currently stand at 676 and a median of $399,000. Condo sales are 225 and median was $250,000, I think there is something up with that median though and using an estimate based on the average price I used $265,000 for the graph. Sales are up both MoM and YoY and prices were down MoM and YoY. Last year at this time the subprime and Alt-A markets abruptly disappeared and the market was left with Fannie/Freddie and FHA and that accounted for such a historic low in sales. Now that prices have fallen sales will look dramatically better when comparing YoY numbers but as you can see from the graphs they are very low historically. So when you hear how great the market is you can keep in mind the historic context and see that the market is still very sick and major price declines continue.