Saturday, November 1, 2008

Preliminary October 2008 San Fernando Valley Home sales


Here are my preliminary calculations for San Fernando Valley October 2008 sales and prices. For single family homes (SFH) I estimate sales will be around 720 and median price coming in around $405,000. Sales could be even higher, I lowered my sales estimate based on two factors, One - The changes in underwriting guidelines on Oct 1st means that more sales were weighted towards the beginning of the month and Two - I've been consistently overestimating sales. SFH sales look like they will be at or above the best level of the year. This would rank as the third weakest October on record for SFH sales. From a seasonality aspect 10 out of the last 24 September to October periods have shown an increase so that fact that sales will probably beat the previous month isn't a very big deal. For condos, I estimate sales will come in around 195 and median price will be around $240,500. The medians can shift a lot on low volume so I could easily see a median up in the $250,000+ range by the time the late reporters come in.

2 comments:

Noz said...

Effective,

Are you suggesting things are improving or bottoming out?

Funny enough, I've been tracking prices via "Zillow" as far as hard numbers go..i.e. actual sale points recorded...from say about 1996 and on for homes that have existed that long.

I draw a line with a 5% slope and with about +1/-1%, the target prices up to about 2002 have been dead on. I mean dead on.

Given this, I continue to draw this line and see that the current price slope which is now in freefall, will match up with my 5% slope somewhere in the middle of 2010.

Effective Demand said...

Noz,

I dont think this is bottoming at all. I think the "strength" you see in the SFH numbers are more a function of the banks staying motivated and the rush to get deals done before Oct 1st deadline for things like FHA DPA and the new MI changes. On deadlines like that, it is a deadline for locking not for closing. The closing can come later and I think the numbers you see now are people rushing in to get a deal done before the guidelines change.

You can get a feel for current demand by looking at the Contingent (or Backup, depending on the county) + Pending counts that I post weekly. Over time those counts should precede demand changes by a month or two.