Sunday, February 22, 2009

Weekly Active/Pending counts SFV & Ventura - 02/21/09

I'm going to post the weekly inventory counts for Ventura County and the San Fernando Valley as more time goes by this data set will become more useful. I have broken out the Short sale and Foreclosure (REO) inventory to better track demand. Eventually the data will either turn into tables or graphs but right now I am putting it out there so others can find and use it for their own purposes.

San Fernando Valley:
Single Family Homes
Active - Total 3281
Active - Short sale 1256
Active - REO 418
Backup - Total 392
Backup - Short sale 151
Backup - REO 83
Pending - Total 1249
Pending - Short sale 460
Pending - REO 515
Distressed active / Total active = 51.0%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 78.0%

Active - Total 1110
Active - Short sale 566
Active - REO 173
Backup - Total 113
Backup - Short sale 49
Backup - REO 31
Pending - Total 404
Pending - Short sale 124
Pending - REO 196
Distressed active / Total active = 66.5%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 79.2%

Ventura County:
Single Family Homes
Active - Total 1910
Active - Short sale 476
Active - REO 190
Contingent - Total 651
Contingent - Short sale 415
Contingent - REO 102
Pending - Total 665
Pending - Short sale 121
Pending - REO 370
Distressed active / Total active = 34.8%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 73.8%
Release from Showing 266

Active - Total 682
Active - Short sale 208
Active - REO 116
Contingent - Total 203
Contingent - Short sale 131
Contingent - REO 47
Pending - Total 213
Pending - Short sale 36
Pending - REO 121
Distressed active / Total active = 47.5%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 73.7%
Release from Showing 67

The Ventura County Single Family Home space is rapidly running out of REOs. You can't have such a wide disparity between distressed active and pending (if you remove short sales you will see what I mean) for very much longer. Unless foreclosures are being held off the market, the mythical shadow inventory which I have seen no evidence of, then that part of the market will start having issues. All these moratoriums will get their stated goal of reducing the number of foreclosures but it will come at the cost of the market sales staying ultra low. We should see sales stay low but "OK" during the first few months of the year but as we start getting towards June or July I think people will be wondering why sales have dropped dramatically in Ventura County and why the median is moving upward (because of the mix shift in homes sold). San Fernando Valley should do a bit better because there is a bit more of a backlog to work through.

1 comment:

dj said...

So here we have the makings of a temp false "bottom"? I can see the headlines in the star now about the rise in median price and why now is a great time to buy!Hurry...hurry