Thursday, February 12, 2009

Foreclosures for January 2009

ForeclosureRadar came out with their January 2009 foreclosure report. I think it is interesting that all categories fell. I have noted that I thought foreclosures have peaked because of servicers using various loss mitigation strategies. But this could merely be the beginning wave of the homes in the pipeline that were delayed by SB 1137. I have noticed locally in Ventura that Trustee Sales are picking up. For those that would like to follow along for free their are a couple of different choices here or here. Neither of them show all trustee sales but combined they do a pretty good job covering most sales. It will be quite interesting to see what the coming months bring.


Anonymous said...

Would you say the drop in foreclosures is a good thing or bad thing?

Odd question? I'm trying to look at it from a buyer's point of view in the long run. I'm not interested in buying a foreclosure but I want prices to just come down more.

Effective Demand said...

Well less motivated supply would cause sales to slow down and price drop to slow. But I wouldn't get too disconcerted, ForeclosureRadar estimated that only 13% of homes that went to trustee sale have been put on the MLS. This is that "shadow inventory" that you might have heard about. If REO inventory did drop sales would drop and that causes another set of issues. What you would see is large price disparities in what has sold because the market was illiquid and value would be harder to gauge. Smart shoppers I think would do well in that enviroment.

While I am leaning towards the thought that foreclosures have peaked, it is by no means definite and I am sure they will stil stay elevated for some time.