Monday, August 3, 2009

Ventura County Shadow Inventory quicky.

I was able to check 690 homes against the Ventura County Regional Data share, these homes went back to the bank between January 1st and April 30th of this year.

I was checking to see of the 690 homes how many were Active, Pending, Contingent or Sold during this period after being taken back by the bank.

There were 473 entries listed out of the 690 APN's entered. Or about 68.5% homes that have been put up for sale. This doesn't include homes that might have been put up on other MLS and could possibly include double counts if people were flipping. I think 70% would be a conservative count and that would mean there were 200 more homes waiting in the wings from the first four months of this year. That would equate to about 25% of one months sales in Ventura County.

I still don't feel that there is more than, at most, a couple months of "shadow inventory" waiting in the wings that are bank owned outside of the homes foreclosed the last couple months (which could be considered to be still in the pre-list stage) and I don't feel this is a huge issue that will overwhelm the market. In fact I think the banks would do very well listing any shadow inventory now as the market is clearly starved for inventory and buyers are unable to push their purchasing power.

I will endeavor to quantify the issue further, possibly by looking at the issue on a city by city basis to make the process more manageable.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I look forward to that analysis.