Monday, August 3, 2009

Short Sale & Foreclosure for the San Fernando Valley

Note: I have added a foreclosure research link to the site, see here

Here are the sales for June 2009 for the San Fernando Valley broken down into distressed and non-distressed categories. Non-distressed sales have increase with seasonal demand and lower distressed sale inventory. Distressed sales are continuing to weaken as a percentage of sales matching the trend seen in the weekly inventory reports. This is the main reason sales remain so weak historically, distressed supply is constrained and non-distressed supply is overpriced. Right now distressed supply in many markets is like water drops hitting a hot skillet, it just instantly evaporates. We can see from the weekly inventory charts that inventory appears to be bottoming. We can also see from the trustee sale charts that some more foreclosure inventory is on its way.
It is amazing to think that we have had such amazing price drops, a tax credit and over 1% drop in long interest rates and sales are below where they were at the same point the year before. We will get some later reporters and I expect sales will eventually come close to the July 2008 number. When you hear the glowing reports about the market about multiple offers on foreclosures.. remember it isn't translating itself into huge sales increases. We've just had sales bounce of a low level but they are still very weak historically. Only more supply and lower prices will help the sales regain their momentum.


Anonymous said...

Hi ED,

Thanks for the report. What do you think will happen (your personal take) once the summer season (selling season) is over and we are again into fall/winter?

My wife and I were looking around and the deals out there SUCK bigtime. It's so depressing actually since we really would like to move. It's almost not worth looking for homes in LA anymore given how crappy the selection is.

They're selling town homes in the Porter Ranch area WELL over what they are worth....$500K-600K for 1800-200 sqft town homes that are made by Toll Brothers among a few.

Total ripoffs. I think they'll be hurting for business in the next few months.

What's you take?

Effective Demand said...

If you were looking at those Toll Brothers townhomes at the top of Topanga. Be aware that is quite possibly one of the windiest places in the valley. I lived near there for awhile, the wind made the area extremely unpleasant.

As to what will happen. It all depends on inventory which all depends on how willing servicers are to take back homes for foreclosure. Demand is great on the low end but purchasing power is limited. The powers that be want a supply constrained market... That is exactly what they have gotten.

We either have low inventory and low sales or more inventory or more sales. Watch the trustee sales for an indication of how the fall will go.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the headsup.

No we actually decided against it after a second look. The place has a narrow entry/exit lane that's steep and with a planned 65 unit build, this place is going to be a NIGHTMARE for people coming in and out of it.

The amount of thought that went into laying this place out was less than what an elementary school child could muster.

I agree with you regarding the powers at's completely manipulated and this is possibly one of the best windows looking into the whole ponzi scheme if you ask me. This was orchestrated from the getgo.

I think if inventory goes up, sales will increase but prices will plummet further. Of course, we may have bidding wars again and prices may go crazy but I doubt this time banks will allow that....what do you think?