Saturday, August 22, 2009

San Fernando Valley home sales report - July 2009

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for July 2009 came in at 745 which is down 3.87% MoM and up 3.91% YoY. The median price for single family homes came in at $400,000 which is up 6.67% MoM and down 8.05% YoY. The movement of mid-level homes down the price change has opened that market a bit which is causing the mix shift to rise. Sales volume is still horrible with this being the 4th worst July on record. Considering interest rates are down over 1% since last year and the tax credit is in effect that is quite amazing that sales volume is still so bad. Part of the reason sales are so bad are due to inventory issues of the market. Inventory is quite low, especially in the affordable ranges. This is due to the foreclosures being leaked on the market and long processing times for short sales. There is a massive amount of inventory sitting at pending and contingent in the SFV and much of that can still be considered active inventory. Between that inventory and foreclosures slowly starting to increase inventory issues should lighten up going into September.

Condo sales came in at 203 which is down 13.98% MoM and down .97% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $228,000 which is up .88% MoM and down 18.57% YoY. Condos continue to perform horribly with this being the 5th worst July on record. There are a lot of condo projects in the Valley which only put 1 or 2 units on the MLS so inventory is definitely underrepresented.

There are a lot of lines on this chart. The red line is the prediction for next months sales. The predictor line hasn't been fairing well, over predicting the last few months. I think this is a combination of fewer homes able to close and longer underwriting times. I expect sales to be down slightly next month. There are still more homes going on market than sold, yet expiration's are dropping and inventory is going down. Strange.

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