I almost want to say the market is getting irrational again but that would suggest it was rational at some point. I think the constrained supply is leading those active shopping in the market to make some very poor choices that I think they will come to regret in the not too distant future. Or I could just be wrong about the strength of demand. We shall soon see.
Update: Please see the home page for the latest graphs, I am reverting earlier weeks to text to maintain site speed.
San Fernando Valley:
Single Family Homes
Active - Total 2780
Active - Short sale 1010
Active - REO 302
Backup - Total 467
Backup - Short sale 195
Backup - REO 105
Pending - Total 1410
Pending - Short sale 541
Pending - REO 541
Distressed active / Total active = 47.2%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 76.7%
Condo
Active - Total 934
Active - Short sale 476
Active - REO 120
Backup - Total 162
Backup - Short sale 82
Backup - REO 34
Pending - Total 405
Pending - Short sale 148
Pending - REO 172
Distressed active / Total active = 63.8%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 79.0%
Ventura County:
Single Family Homes
Active - Total 1744
Active - Short sale 389
Active - REO 162
Contingent - Total 774
Contingent - Short sale 475
Contingent - REO 94
Pending - Total 649
Pending - Short sale 145
Pending - REO 279
Distressed active / Total active = 31.6%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 65.3%
Release from Showing 283
Condo
Active - Total 606
Active - Short sale 181
Active - REO 78
Contingent - Total 282
Contingent - Short sale 187
Contingent - REO 46
Pending - Total 218
Pending - Short sale 47
Pending - REO 108
Distressed active / Total active = 42.7%
Distressed pending / Total Pending = 71.1%
Release from Showing 69
4 comments:
thanks for the update..I'm personally starting to see higher end stuff creep onto the market.FYI PiGG has recent post kinda calling bottom in SD...kinda....fun comments on that one....thanks again for sound advice...DJ
I completly agree with you, it seems demand is outstripping supply. People have very short term memories and most think prices will start to rise again if not now they will in a few years by alot. This will prove not to be the case. All the Moratoriums also are keeping supply low. I bet alot of these sales are to "investors" who will think they will make a killing renting for a couple years and then selling for a nice profit. What they will find is there are a ton of rentals, they most likely will get less then what they think they can. And in a few years the value of the home will be down alot more as the upper end of the market collapses pushing all prices down more. As Bill Fleckenstien said today "It must be remembered that some of the best rallies occur in bear markets. For instance, in the first half of 1930, the market jumped 40% -- twice what Bubblevision defines as a bull market -- and it certainly didn't end very well. (Part of the reason for that big rally was a belief that the recession, which became the Great Depression, was already over.)" He may be talking stocks but I think it applies to housing big time now, people still think they have to jump in now before prices start rising again.
No. Stated supply is declining relative to purported demand.
Anyone who thinks this dead cat bounce is a recovery is welcome.
I only see 2 options for the market. Either REOs and short sales keep coming on market in the lower price ranges enough to keep the market liquid or sales slow. Pricing power is just not there so there really isn't much alternative. If i'm right about a mid-summer slowdown the contingents should peak by late May at the latest. If the REOs start coming on quicker then this could be a pretty good year for sales.
Anonymous, I'm reminded of something Barry Ritholtz said regarding stock markets. Crashes don't happen when stocks are oversold (i.e. a bunch of people sitting on the sidelines having just sold) but happen when stocks are overbought (peoples money are already all tied up, little new money to absorb supply). Now houses aren't stocks but the concept is interesting. But I could just be a bearishes person putting a negative spin on things.
Just a note, I've updated the graphs and chart on this post to account for late reporters:
http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com/2009/04/short-sale-foreclosure-for-san-fernando.html
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