Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Ventura County March 2009 Sales

Dataquick released their March 2009 homes sales report for Ventura County. March sales came in at 776 which is up 41.3% from March 2008 all time low. Median price came in at $326,000 which is down 24.2% from the year before and down 48.2% from the peak. Foreclosure sales are still driving the market but as the spring selling season continues and we have more fair market sales and fewer REO sales the median should start rising a bit. As you can see from the second chart March sales are still very weak. With inventory being so tight I think we should see a slowdown come July or so since buyers have no additional purchasing power. Hopefully trustee sales will start climbing to bridge the gap between current supply and demand and keep sales going.


Rob Dawg said...

We are running out of willing buyers. I see the houses that would cash flow with 20% down and I'm not interested because I don't think that will cash flow next year. Look at all the inventory 90-120- even 1 year on market. IMO this summer we'll have even foreclosure priced houses accumulating.

Effective Demand said...

If we run out of buyers everything is possible. But since our area has such a large percentage of renters all the asset managers have to do is keep cutting prices until they get an offer. We have a long way to go before we are in the same situation as the areas with no willing buyers like Ohio and Michigan. What they will be running out of is willing renters and that is where your cash flow projection comes in.

I think people buying for cash flow right now are in for a rude shock. I've already seen quite a few, fix, flip, rent purchases coming back on market as the investor is giving up after less than a year. For amateur investors I suspect asking rents is one of those things that gets overestimated.

The most successful investors are those doing flips. Buy way under market, paint and carpet, sell. Don't expose yourself to the market too long. Ride the bull, trade the bear.

Rob Dawg said...

We are saying the same thing. Once people realize those investment properties won't cash flow under the new lower rents then they stop being willing buyers.

I'm waiting to see what happens to 410 Avocado. Sold 15 months ago $755k and probably $100k in new drywall, windows, septic, clean up landscaping. Another $80k in carrying costs. Probably still worth $755k. This illustrates your point of the danger of long term exposure.

Effective Demand said...

Looked up 410, I don't see any new loans (if they needed money for rehab) and it looks like they put 20% down. Just pouring money down a hole if its an investment.