Tuesday, April 14, 2009

California Foreclosures for March 2009

ForeclosureRadar came out with their March 2009 foreclosure report. Notice of Defaults (NOD) rose to a new high. Notice of Trustee sales increased signficantly and trustee sales decreased. Quite a mixed report. Since NODs are the leading indicator it looks like things are going to start deteriorating even more later this year once some of that supply hits the market. One other possible explanation is that people are learning more about loan modifications and are intentionally defaulting in hopes of getting a better loan modification. There is significant lags between NOD, NTS and actual trustee sales add in all the government programs and I think this data set will have a lot of noise over this next year.
As a look ahead for April Trustee Sales for Ventura County have been about 92 over 10 business days relative to 143 sales over 22 business days the month before (9.2 per day vs 6.5 per day). For Los Angeles County we are at 1,030 sales so far relative to 1,599 the month before (103 per day vs 72.6 per day) so trustee sales are starting to rise but not dramatically. I suspect the servicers are waiting for the standardized GSE net present value (NPV) test for loan modifications before the foreclosures decision is made. James Lockhart has indicated that will come "very soon".

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