Dataquick reported home sales for Ventura County for September 2009 today. Home sales came in at 784, down 3.0% YoY. The median sales prices came in at $371,750 which was down 3.4% YoY. Assuming people lock the month before they close August 2008 rates were 6.48%, August 2009 rates were 5.19%. People need to put todays market in context of the rates being so ultra-low to understand just how bad these numbers really are. The Federal Reserve claims to be winding down their MBS purchases and therefore rates will rise. I have a really hard time seeing how they will do so, can you imagine this market at 6.5% rates?
We are still in a supply constrained market, sales and price movements should be pretty static as long as that is the case. But rates, unemployment , defaults, etc are all building headwinds to the market. I keep thinking it can't stay like this forever but the people who own the printing presses are telling me I am wrong (and they are clearly winning the argument right now).