I don't mean to wax philosophic much but as a regular guy just watching the economy and real estate it is becoming tougher and tougher to define reality. I have many tools at my disposal at numbers I can run to see where the market is at any one point in time. But nagging in my mind is the massive government interference in the market dynamic of the housing market. How can any rational person enter the market with the interference in place? What happens when it goes away? What happens if it doesn't? How am I as joe six-pack supposed to deal with the decision of spending massive amounts of money on a home in context of this interference.
Rich Toscano over at Pigginton wrote an article the other day of a similar to Bill Gross of PIMCO article earlier this year basically saying don't fight the Fed/Government. Anyone saying the market is only this "good" right now because of government interference (as I have said here) is missing the point that the government interference isn't leaving anytime soon. That is fine over the short term (3-5 years) over the long term with a long term investment that a home is, its a different story, you have to look at what the market looks like with normal interest rates and normal debt to income ratios. This is a very large investment decision (the largest most people make in their lives) and one I personally think should be given much more weight than I see people giving even with all that is going on.
So here I am, a person who just wanted to buy a house in late 2005 and who is still waiting to see something that makes sense. It is depressing to think that that day might never come. The Fed and Government clearly are saying reality is different than what is has been the previous 50 years (housing/credit bubble not included). I can't fight them and I have no desire to join them. They own the printing press so they can win any war on savers.. but the cost to the nation for such things is great as well. So it is an interesting quandary... What is reality?
My reality is that I re-upped my lease. My housing consumption will remain minimial until I see value, if I never see value, so be it.