Today the C.A.R. released their 2010 Forecast today, I have added last years forecast and some of the changes made as a way of measuring how well they did throughout this last year. It was painfully obvious that last years forecast was outdated the instant they gave it. And I said so at the time. Looking at the sales trend before the forecast for the previous months they were all showing things much different than the presentation the CAR gave. The forecast is the highlight of the CAR Expo every year and it is always sold out from what I hear.
My favorite quotes of mine from last year regarding the forecast:
"So why, when faced by the one crowd whose job it is to educate and prepare for the upcoming season do they sugar coat the price decline issue? It is really unfortunate that they can't bring themselves to be realistic as good information will be one of the things that will help this situation normalize."
"I think the CAR doesn't have any data models or anything sophisticated they just forecast sales and prices +/- 5% and then adjust throughout the year based on incoming data."
I'll have to think some more on the forecast and go through the presentation a bit more to formulate an opinion. But my guess is they are underestimating the median price improvement (due to the mix shift that I believe will happen in 2010) and overestimating sales. I am reminded of some wise words I once heard, "If your numbers are off more than 10%, you are just guessing". The CAR is just guessing and people give their opinion way too much credit.
New Forecast for 2010:
June 2009 Forecast:
April 2009 Forecast:
Updated January 2009 Forecast..