Thursday, July 17, 2008

Ventura County June 2008 Sales

The June 2008 report from Dataquick is out. Sales rose month over month (MoM) and dropped Year over Year (YoY). Median price was again under heavy pressure falling both MoM and YoY. Junes 767 sales represent a 13.4% drop from last year. The median price of $420,000 was 27.8% below last year. 37% of the county sales were foreclosures. Unfortunately, Dataquick doesn't also report how many sales were short sales but they represent a significant and growing portion of the closed sales. It is clear the banks are the ones defining the market and are dictating price and pace of homes being sold.
I think the market is moving along at a logical pace. The median steadied a bit as hope was held out for the spring selling season as that is proving to be a bust prices are dropping in order to try to maintain even such low volumes. I think the banks will be looking to maintain volume even through the summer and fall are traditionally slower selling times and will drop prices in order to do so. They simply can't wait until next spring, the growing number of foreclosures and defaults are forcing their hand. Look for inventory to start dropping as existing home sellers give up and become even less of a factor in the current market. The next step will be for banks to head off foreclosures (in a rapidly declining market the longer it takes to get the property off the books the more money the banks lose) by becoming more motivated on short sales or potentially writing down principal on loans where the owners are facing temporary financial setback. This should mean we are nearing the high point for defaults. But the continued and significant downturn in the local economy could prove me wrong in the coming months.


Rob Dawg said...

I think the market is moving along at a logical pace.

32 ft/sec^2 is a logical pace. In past declines retracement took twice as long as run up. We are falling faster than we rose.

Effective Demand said...


Sorry I wasn't more clear, I'm saying the recent slowdown in the rate of decline of the median is a natural response to the seasonality of the market (everyone holding out hope for that great selling season) and the mild uptick of volume. I think it will start its rapid decline as we approach fall/winter as it becomes increasing clear we just had another bust of a year. The decline is indeed dramatic and will continue for the foreseeable futre.