Saturday, July 19, 2008

Preliminary June 2008 San Fernando Valley sales charts

Here are the estimated SFH and Condo sales for the SFV region based on the preliminary release from the SRAR.

Homes sales look to be slightly up to around 682, 2-3% MoM and flat to down 1% from the year before. The median should come in around $440,000 which would be down 2% MoM and down around 32% (!) from $655,000 a year before. Pending sales are up slightly so next month should see sales around 700 if my estimates are correct.

Condo sales look to be up around 29% MoM and down 11% YoY. The median should come in around $310,000 which would be up 3% MoM and down 22% YoY. Pendings are flat so next month sales should be close to this months estimated 217 sales.

We are in a bifurcated market. There are the motivated sellers and then there is everyone else. The banks are clearing inventory but not keeping up with the number of homes they are taking back. Inventory is falling a bit and we are starting to go negative YoY. This a function of unrealistic sellers giving up and more homes being foreclosed and waiting around to be processed and put on the market.

As the summer progresses it will be interest to see the course the banks take. If they hold the line on prices during winter, inventory builds. If they try to maintain volume during a traditionally slow time, prices will fall dramatically. Which path they choose to go will set up next years selling season. We could have much better sales year next year if prices go into the selling season significantly lower. But if the banks hold the line sales will probably only have a small rebound as the standoff continues.

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