Dataquick's quarterly foreclosure report was released today. I may have more to write about it later but here is an updated chart of the likelihood of being foreclosed on once a notice of default is filed.
Clearly the foreclosure issue is getting worse. L.A. County started down the foreclosure path a bit later than some of the rest of the state so it will peak later as well. I think some parts of the state are near their peak of default activity. According to my calculations Q4 of 2008 should have more homes foreclosed in the state than sold. But there are some safe harbor provisions in the new housing bill that may allow servicers to make wholesale modifications without exposing themselves to investor lawsuits. This may make the foreclosure issue subside faster if homeowners start getting handed sweetheart deals by servicers. I think it is a small possibility but one that has to be taken into account.
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