Wednesday, February 24, 2010

San Fernando Valley home sales report - January 2010

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for January 2010 came in at 494 which is down 22.45% MoM and down 4.63% YoY. The median price for single family homes came in at $380,000 which is down 5.00% MoM and up 8.57% YoY. The supply constrained market is hurting sales in the SFV. Based on what I am seeing in the weekly inventory reports that doesn't appear to be changing anytime soon.

Condo sales came in at 204 which is down 13.55% MoM and up 22.90% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $215,000 which is down 10.41% MoM and up 13.15% YoY. Condos are faring much better than SFH because there is more supply due to all the new condo construction during the boom and it appears some buyers are choosing to buy a condo when they can't find what they want in a detached home.

The red line was my attempt to create a predictor for sales but it hasn't been working out so well since May of this last year. IMHO, it appears that some pendings are being double counted, instead of falling out and going BOM (which would reduce my predictor), they are just switching buyers and updating the pending date which gets them counted in the current months pendings again. This is supposition on my part since I don't know how SRAR constructs their numbers but nothing much else makes sense. Anyways the predictor is predicting sales flat for February.

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