Here are the sales for Ventura County for December 2009. December is clearly on track to again have sales down year over year a trend that has continued since July. This is because there are fewer REO's being sold, as clearly indicated by the table. Less motivated supply will mean continued slow sales. Either prices fall and sales pickup or prices stagnate and so do sales, there is no free lunch. Based on the above numbers I predict Dataquick will report sales around 760 for December.
Looking forward in 2010 it is hard to see how sales pickup. Rates will start going up after Q1 due to Federal Reserve and Treasury stopping their MBS purchases. Supply will continue to be constrained as the administration continues to not allow failed HAMP mods move to short sales and foreclosures but instead tries to re-work the modification. And the tax credit will end so buyers will have even less motivation to buy. So unless something "gives" and reality starts being dealt with 2010 will a bad year for real estate sales for everyone but the trustee sale investor.