Monday, January 25, 2010

San Fernando Valley home sales report - December 2009

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for December 2009 came in at 637 which is up 9.45% MoM and down 7.81% YoY. The median price for single family homes came in at $400,000 which is up 1.27% MoM and up 13.31% YoY. The supply constrained market is hurting sales in the SFV. I don't see any near term catalyst to drive sales higher, just a long slow slog while we get to wait and guess what the government is going to next to "fix" housing.

Condo sales came in at 236 which is up 17.41% MoM and up 2.16% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $240,000 which is up 6.67% MoM and up 6.67% YoY. Condos are faring a bit better than SFH because there is more supply and it appears some buyers are choosing to buy a condo when they can't find what they want in a detached home.

The red line was my attempt to create a predictor for sales but it hasn't been working out so well since May of this last year. IMHO, it appears that some pendings are being double counted, instead of falling out and going BOM (which would reduce my predictor), they are just switching buyers and updating the pending date which gets them counted in the current months pendings again. This is supposition on my part since I don't know how SRAR constructs their numbers but nothing much else makes sense.

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