Saturday, November 21, 2009

San Fernando Valley home sales report - October 2009

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for October 2009 came in at 663 which is down 3.07% MoM and down 11.01% YoY. The median price for single family homes came in at $390,000 which is up 2.63% MoM and down 4.88% YoY. Sales continue to be tremendously depressed even in the face of massive housing focused stimulus. The flip side of asset price stability is sub par transactional volume, there is no free lunch. Single Family Home sales are at levels not seen since the early 90's which was a deep recession locally in the San Fernando Valley.

Condo sales came in at 228 which is up 20.63% MoM and down 2.56% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $235,000 which is up 1.29% MoM and up 4.44% YoY. Condos are faring a bit better than SFH because there is more supply and it appears some buyers are choosing to buy a condo when they can't find what they want in a detached home.

The red line was my attempt to create a predictor for sales but it hasn't been working out so well since May of this last year. IMHO, it appears that some pendings are being double counted, instead of falling out and going BOM (which would reduce my predictor), they are just switching buyers and updating the pending date which gets them counted in the current months pendings again. This is supposition on my part since I don't know how SRAR constructs their numbers but nothing much else makes sense.

I think because of the large number of pendings, many of them short sales, and longer underwriting times by lender we will see a more flattened out sales curve going into the slow winter months. While sales will still be very low I would guess January and February will beat YoY numbers but I think November and December will be flat to lower than the year before.

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