Tuesday, November 3, 2009

San Fernando Valley home sales report - September 2009

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for September 2009 came in at 684 which is up 2.09% MoM and up 3.95% YoY. The median price for single family homes came in at $380,000 which is down 2.31% MoM and down 3.18% YoY. Sales continue to be tremendously depressed even in the face of massive housing focused stimulus. The flip side of asset price stability is sub par transactional volume, there is no free lunch.

Condo sales came in at 189 which is down 17.82% MoM and down 10.43% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $232,000 which is up .87% MoM and down 10.77% YoY.

The red line was my attempt to create a predictor for sales but it hasn't been working out so well since May of this last year. IMHO, it appears that some pendings are being double counted, instead of falling out and going BOM (which would reduce my predictor_, they are just switching buyers and updating the pending date which gets them counted in the current months pendings again. This is supposition on my part since I don't know how SRAR constructs their numbers but nothing much else makes sense.

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