Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Ventura County Demand versus Inventory - July 2009

This is June 2009 Demand versus Inventory for Ventura County. I have broke down demand into 3 separate parts, Completed sales, properties under some sort of contingent contract and properties that have cleared contingencies and are waiting to close escrow. If you compare this months chart with last months chart we see demand pending/contingent demand starting to weaken further on the high end where it appears the seasonal rush is over. Inventory in the middle ranges looks like it is improving and the drops in inventory on the higher end appears to be sellers dropping price as the lower price points increase at the same time the higher ends decrease. It is clear all the major activity is on the low end but supply is still constrained. Buyers aren't able to push price and are just searching for deals wherever they can find them.


picosec said...

AWESOME chart!

In your spare time, could you calc the mean/median values of each category (sold, pending, active,...) for comparison?

David said...

Could you point out where the data comes from? Thanks. I would like to make some similar charts.

Anonymous said...

Tanks David, I was hoping to find the same data sets. I would like to narrow it down to a specific zip+4 if possible...

Effective Demand said...


I'll see if I can add that to my queries. I'm curious, What do you think it will tell you?

David and Anon,

The data comes from MLS exports you'd have to be friendly with an agent or have MLS access to get it. I take the exports and then query using SQL them to get the data. What areas were you looking for?

Picosec said...

Ventura County Demand vs Inventory-July, 2009

Statistics for each sales/listing status

Average (k$)…$501……$448……..$450………..$751
Median (k$)…..$410……$370……..$370………..$615

Pending and Contingent are equivalent and slightly less than the Sold group. Possibly this is because purchases of lower price homes are by people with more marginal credit which is delaying the closing. Just a guess, though.

The real story is the huge gap between the “real” market (SOLDs) and the “wish” market (ACTIVEs). Both the Mean and the Median asking price of active listings are 50% higher than for those homes recently sold.

Effective Demand said...


I thought you meant you wanted that data per price point (50k increment on the graph) so i wasn't sure what that would tell you.

Yes, as you have seen the market is running out of inventory in the ranges where people can afford to buy. Its the story of the selling season, sales are muted because inventory is sparse.

The Federal Reserve made a great market to liquidate distressed inventory into. Then all the politicians banded together to make sure there would be as little distressed inventory for the banks to liquidate and use the opportunity. It makes no sense.