Sunday, June 7, 2009

Ventura County Demand versus Inventory - June 2009

(click to enlarge)

This is June 2009 Demand versus Inventory for Ventura County. I have broke down demand into 3 separate parts, Completed sales, properties under some sort of contingent contract and properties that have cleared contingencies and are waiting to close escrow. With the spike in interest rates the large number of contingent properties are in danger of falling out if loan locks are lost and rates don't adjust back down. You can see that the $650,000+ market is still in much denial and the low end has a tremendous amount of activity. The story of the market going into summer is how much supply can be brought in on the low end and the pull through to closing on the large number of contingent contracts.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Cool.

Can I come over here and snark freely?

lawyerliz

Effective Demand said...

Snark is always welcome!

Rob Dawg said...

It's almost like there was some invisible barrier somewhere around $417,000.

Effective Demand said...

The sub 600k market is at a level that I would call irrational. Below 300k I'd almost call it bubble-icious. Its a feeding frenzy for most supply coming on market of any sort of quality.

natetg said...

I have a hard time reading the porcupine graph. When I split out the colors it looks like the disconnect is closer to 850,000 than 650,000. Contingent, pending, and sold seem to match up reasonably well up to that point, and, from there up, it's basically active-only.

Effective Demand said...

Nate,

Yes the activity is all on the low end and much of that activity happened at below 5% rates. So *IF* rates go to 5.5% or 6% I think a lot of marginal deals will blow up.

The high end is still in denial.

Effective Demand said...

I should say **IF** rates STAY between 5.5-6% then a lot of marginal deals will blow up. Rates have already spiked we just don't know how many purchase deals were floating.

natetg said...

BTW, I've been lurking here for a while. Love the blog.

Effective Demand said...

natetg,

Welcome and thanks for the kind words.