Saturday, June 6, 2009

The activity of the last week.

Just a quick note of what I think has been happening this last week. There has been a surge of closing and properties going under contract. I think both of these things are driven by the surge in interest rates that happened since May 27th ("Black Wednesday" some are calling it). Lenders with purchase transactions with rate locks expiring soon are pushing them through to prevent the deal from blowing up. Borrowers who were shopping with rate locks or just seeing rates spiking have rushed into contracts to buy before rates going any higher. Assuming rates don't recover with all the contingent contracts in the pipeline I would expect some large fallout due to locks expiring before conditions can be cleared, especially on short sale transaction.

The market is highly irrational now, even bubble-icious in some areas. Low inventory due to foreclosure moratoriums and loan modifications are keeping new supply from coming on the market and a tax credit, ultra-low rates (sub 5%) and loose FHA underwriting are driving demand.

While I believe this is just a short term situation due to the factors listed above, I could be wrong.

If you would like to follow rates I recommend here and the related blog here.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

We just went to see a few new constructions in Porter Ranch...still WAY WAY WAY overpriced in my opinion. 1300 sqft places for $480k.

Funny thing is they claim they are sold out and the next phase is starting. I would really like to meet the people who are buying these properties to see what makes them tick.