Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Ventura County June 2009 Home Sales

The June 2009 Ventura County homes sales were announced by Dataquick today. Sales came in at 844 which is up 5.9% MoM and up 10.0% YoY. Sales are still very weak and only 5% mortgage rates, a tax credit and normal seasonal demand have made the sales as "good" as they are now. Median sales price has shown seasonal improvement at $365,000 which is up 2.8% MoM and down 13.1% YoY. With foreclosures dominating the winter sales the median overstated the correction just as the median improvement now overstates its strength. As I have shown with my monthly charts the REO portion of the market has moderated somewhat, Dataquick reports the same phenomenon happening across the Southland with REO sales showing a smaller slice of the market.

Supply is still highly constrained though improving slightly. As long as the government can keep long rates around 5% and a cap on foreclosures the price declines on the low end will be muted.. the mid to high end still has some room to fall. Any increase in long rates will directly translate into reduced prices in the market. In my opinion, I think the buying activity now is highly speculative and based on a rosey scenario developing over the near term future.

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