Here is the various Back On Market (BOM) ratios for April2009 home sales. Note, the local REALTOR® group uses the BOM as a % of sales as their preferred metric.
The above is total sales, new pendings and BOM for April 2009. It will be interesting to see how much more the needle can be pushed. Supply isn't very good, turnaround times on mortgages are getting high, the economy is doing bad and rates just jumped. Something has to give.
This graph is identical the the graph above except for the red line. This red line is a sales estimate based on BOM and current month pendings shifted forward 60 days in time to account for escrows and reporting lag. It seems to report a bit low during the spring and a bit high during the winer. It is predicting total sales of around 1080 next month which feels a bit low but in the ballpark (I think it will be 1120-1160).
Note: I have added no cost (supported through blog advertising) foreclosure research to the blog, see here.
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