Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Ventura County July 2008 Sales

July continued the upward trend in sales rising 13.4% MoM and 10.9% YoY. From here forward each month should show positive YoY gains. As you can see in the top graph, once Alt-A blew up the music stopped in the housing market and everyone was looking around for a chair. The tremendously slow sales during that historic lull means that the yearly sales comparisons will be easy. If you look at the sales in historic context they still are very low but it is clear that the sales bottom has been reached in Ventura County and now it's just a question of how far prices will drop. If the banks stay motivated through the winter and the economy muddles through we could even have "ok" sales (10% off average for any particular month) next year at significantly discounted prices. I was thinking that July was probably the peak because of the rate jump in June pulling demand forward. But looking at some forward looking stats I think some areas will hit higher highs than July, in the aggregate it will be close to see if August can beat July, but it is certainly a distinct possibility. There is also significant of fallout of pending transactions so predictions are really tough.

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