Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Guesstimates of July SFV sales

Update: Looks like DQ won't be releasing until next week. The Ventura charts will be released then.

I'm working on getting a running total of SFV sales and pendings going, the first step will be to see if I'm even in the ballpark. The current sales for July according to my calculations is 744 for SFH homes with a $435,000 median. For condos sales are around 190 with a $270,000 median. Late reporters should increase both these numbers so I think the final tally will be in the 750-760 ballpark for SFH and 195-200 area for condos.

This would represent a increase of 10.8% MOM and 20.5% YoY for SFH sales and a decrease of 17.3% MoM and 31.1% YoY for condo sales. Active inventory is basically flat (slightly up) and pendings are either between 1060 and 1170 depending on various factors, this brackets last months pendings of 1128. Sales should be positive for the SFV through the rest of the year, the YoY comparisons are very easy. Something catastrophic will have to happen for that not to be the case.

We will see how things look once the official numbers come out then I can fine tune my efforts a bit better. Once I have that dialed in I can have running totals down to the city level if people are interested. I will also work at defining the short sale and REO market versus the rest of the market.

Here are the charts as things stand with the above numbers.

SFH sales:

July only SFH sales:

Condo sales:

I think DQ numbers should be reported tomorrow, if they are I'll get the Ventura County charts up.

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