July official sales stats are out for the San Fernando Valley. SFH sales came in at 717 which was a 6.86% improvement MoM and 16.21% improvement YoY. SFH median was $435,000 which was a 0.9 % improvement MoM and -30.95% decline YoY. My guesstimates were between 750-760 for SFH sales, off about 5% and $435,000 for median (off 0%).
Condo sales came in at 205 which was -10.8% decline MoM and -25.7% decline YoY. The median price Condo for July was $280,0000 off -5.0% MoM and -31.2% YoY. My guess was 195-200 for Condos (off about 3%) and $270,000 for median (off about 3.5%).
Pending sales for both SFH & Condos came in at 1141 right in between my last months estimate. SFH sales should be flat MoM next month and as we come into the easy YoY comparisons should be up dramatically YoY. For Condos they are continuing the perform horribly and but should still be flat to slightly higher YoY due to how far sales of everything fell off after July of last year.
I think I'm on the right track as far as estimates go so I'll have a market check around the first to give you a preview on the August numbers. If anyone needs any SFV submarkets broken out let me know in the comments or by email.
In looking at the data further I think once the traditional sales season ends sales will drop faster than normal, I will detail my reasoning for this in a post later next week. I think 2008 SFH sales will beat 2007 SFH sales but condo sales won't. The signals are mixing now for sales which is indicative of a market shift but prices are still firmly in a downward trend.
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