The May 2008 Dataquick report is out. For Ventura County sales dropped Month over Month (MoM) and Year over Year (YoY). The month over month is a bit surprising as May is usually a prime selling month but at this point it could just be noise in the data. Sales were 708 which was a 17.8% drop from 861 sales a year before and 8.8% drop from the month before. The median price of $435,000 was 26.3 below last years $590,000.
This is a weak report for Ventura. Ventura is seeing a very weak seasonal pickup in sales and even the fact that the banks are somewhat motivated sellers (though not at liquidation levels) isn't helping bring the market back. Prices will continue to fall until an equilibrium point is reached and the market can clear inventory. Sales will improve once prices get to a point where available financing supports it.
Last year at this time Dataquick was talking about how the lack of available financing to subprime borrowers was keeping sales unnaturally low. Now they are talking about how the lack of jumbo financing is keeping sales low. It is all part of the same cycle, bubble type financing for the low end borrower failed first (skewing the median higher) and then the higher end bubble financing went away as well. Now we are starting to return to a normal lending market and prices will continue to adjust to that reality.
3 comments:
Apr/May each had 22 working days and 5 Fridays. April did not have its usual Easter. If anything Apr was biased higher not May lower.
For a cool graph multiply average sales price times sold for total $ volume.
Hello Rob,
One of the easiest ways to get total $ volume is use Melissa Data free home lookups since they have average dollar volume and sales per zip. I've been doing that since mid-2006.
The brokerages are really starting to take it in the shorts, I noticed some Troop offices closing around Ventura and a couple Century 21's in the valley. The brokerages have been slow to respond and it is costing them.
Hopefully I will have some more localized reports up soon. I have a good amount of data I just have to think the best way to present it. I like the financing report for Chatsworth and I think I will make that a monthly report for various towns as it is interesting to see how people are paying for homes. But I am open to suggestions.
On my hill, Las Posas Estates 93010 most of the mainstream brokers have declined to take listings at prices they know are impossible. As a result one upstart agency has a bunch of listings at 2006 prices and no hope of actual sales. All the established companies remember 1990-95. this one will learn.
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