Sunday, June 22, 2008

Preliminary May 2008 San Fernando Valley Home sales charts

The SRAR has come out with some of their home reports for May but hasn't yet broke out the numbers specifically for Condo and SF homes. I estimated some preliminary number based on the percentage increase reported and MLS information. Home sales are up sequentially about 18% and condos about 16% if my calculations are correct. Year over year numbers should come in possibly 4% higher for home sales and about 32% down for condo sales.

Pending sales increased significantly for condos and dropped somewhat for SFH. It is clear prices are continuing to drop as the price discovery process is still in progress. Single Family Homes, in my estimation, have begun the inventory clearing process. This doesn't mean prices will stop dropping it means that prices have started to hit a point where some sellers with equity are deciding that they can't get enough for their home and choosing to stay and some buyers are deciding they are getting enough for their money to purchase. Condos have yet to start this process and it is clear the Valley has a serious issue in this area.

While I can't quantify it, I would guess gas prices are helping the Valley market at the cost of the Ventura market and Northern LA county markets (Palmdale/Lancaster, Santa Clarity Valley). You are starting to see sub-$300,000 single family homes on the Valley floor and I think that will steal demand from the outer areas.

I will post the official numbers when I get them but here are the charts I have based on the preliminary data I calculated (click to enlarge):

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