Thursday, June 26, 2008

Updated San Fernando Valley sales

The SRAR has released the numbers for SFH and condos. SFH sales were up 6.36% Year-over-Year (YoY) and 22.3% Month-over-Month (MoM). After an unprecedented lull in sales the home sale activity is up almost double since January, except this is still the second worst May on record for SFH sales. Median prices for SFH were down 30.7% YoY and down 3.23% MoM. Clearly the smaller, cheaper homes are defining the market.

Pending sales were also released, they were flat from the previous month. The mix changed slightly though, SFH pendings dropped and Condo pendings rose. So we could be seeing the condo price drops finally moving the sales needle a bit.

Here are SFH sales & prices in historic context:

Here is SFH sales for May in historic context:

Condos are still showing an anemic spring selling season. Condo sales were down 32.8% YoY and up 15.0% MoM. Condo median prices fell 22.7% YoY and fell .33% MoM. Driving around the valley you see that their is a tremendous amount of infill and conversions waiting in the wings for the condo market, it clearly has much further to fall.

Here are Condo sales & prices in historic context:

Here is Condo sales for May in historic context:

Affordability is still the number one issue for the market. Either the market is going to have to get used to very slow sales and high prices or prices will come down further. With more foreclosures entering the market and short sales becoming more of a force as servicers get their act together and starting approving them faster I think it that prices will remain under pressure for some time.

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