Saturday, August 21, 2010

San Fernando Valley home sales report - July 2010

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for July 2010 came in at 589 which is down 9.24% MoM and down 20.94% YoY. This is the tenth straight month of YoY declines and the WORST July on record for Single Family Home sales. The median price for single family homes came in at $399,000 which is up 3.64% MoM and down 0.25% YoY. Residential inventory is officially up YoY but inventory is still light. The market is completed stagnated, the administration is keeping the motivated inventory generally off the market and there is no market clearing event so sales and buyers choices will continue to be horrible going forward. New pendings last month were at levels suggesting August will come in at or slightly below July which would make for the worst August on record.

Condo sales came in at 216 which is down 17.56% MoM and up 6.40% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $220,000 which is down 4.34% MoM and down 3.50% YoY. The only strength in the market is in the condo space and I think that is due more to the amount of motivated supply (whole condo projects going defunct). Condo pendings aren't strong going forward and are at levels suggesting that August sales will look very much like July.

Based on July pendings (green line) the predictor (red line) suggest slightly lower sales for August.

I predict the NAR will be going hat in hand to Congress for another tax credit soon (probably after the elections). With sales this bad they will try to get another handout.

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