Thursday, May 20, 2010

San Fernando Valley home sales report - April 2010

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for April 2010 came in at 644 which is up 8.42% MoM and down 6.80% YoY. This is the seventh straight month of YoY declines and the third worst April sales on record. The median price for single family homes came in at $379,000 which is down 5.25% MoM and up 6.76% YoY. The supply constrained market is hurting sales in the SFV. Supply is still down YoY but that looks to change by mid-year if the trend of low sales and rising inventory holds.

Condo sales came in at 217 which is up 2.84% MoM and up 3.33% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $250,000 which is up 16.82% MoM and up 12.20% YoY. Condos are faring much better than SFH because there is more supply due to all the new condo construction during the boom and it appears some buyers are choosing to buy a condo when they can't find what they want in a detached home. Sales are still extremely low historically, just not as bad as SFH.

The red line was my attempt to create a predictor for sales but it hasn't been working out so well since May of this last year. IMHO, it appears that some pendings are being double counted, instead of falling out and going BOM (which would reduce my predictor), they are just switching buyers and updating the pending date which gets them counted in the current months pendings again. This is supposition on my part since I don't know how SRAR constructs their numbers but nothing much else makes sense. But the predictor is saying sales will rise significantly for May.

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