Delay in postings..

I bought a house and have been very busy the last month dealing with it. I will have the usual posts back soon.

Weekly Housing Inventory update for SFV & Ventura - 12/04/2010

Here are the weekly inventory and pending counts for Ventura County and the San Fernando Valley. For the legend Single Family Homes is abbreviated SFH, Ventura County is abbreviated VC and San Fernando Valley is abbreviated SFV. For readers who might not know, REO are bank owned foreclosures and short sales are owners hoping to sell the home for less than what is owed on the mortgage balance.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - November 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County November 2010. Based on me taking statistics a bit later than usual and adjusting for recent changes in the underlying data sources I think the Dataquick number will be around 575 for November. This is very low sales level and is usually only seen around January/February.

Interest rates recently spiked from sub-4% to mid-4.5% plus.. that will pressure the market further in the coming spring season and could blow up some existing pendings as everyone (myself included!) expected QE2 to lower mortgage rates or at least keep them at 4%.

Stagnation in the market appears to still remain the new normal.

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - November 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for November 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for November. But, it appears that sales should be lower in November than October.

San Fernando Valley home sales report - October 2010

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for October 2010 came in at 532 which is down 8.43% MoM and down 19.76% YoY. This is the thirteenth straight month of YoY declines and the second worst October on record for Single Family Home sales. The median price for single family homes came in at $385,000 which is down 2.53% MoM and up 1.28% YoY. The market is completed stagnated, the administration is keeping the motivated inventory generally off the market and there is no market clearing event so sales and buyers choices will continue to be horrible going forward. New pendings last month were at levels suggesting November will come in at October levels.

Condo sales came in at 168 which is down 13.40% MoM and down 26.31% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $220,000 which is even MoM and down 6.38% YoY. Relative to SFH condos have been performing better but that is because there is more motivated condo supply than SFH. Sales are still horrible in historical context, just not as bad as SFH.

Based on October pendings (green line) the predictor (red line) suggest sales for November coming in about even.

Ventura County October 2010 Home Sales

Dataquick reported home sales for Ventura County for October 2010 today. Home sales came in at 619 down 29.6% YoY and down 9.2% MoM. The median sales price came in at $355,000 down 2.7% YoY and down 4.0% MoM. This was in line with the prediction I made at the beginning of the month for closed sales. Currently Novembers pace is running basically flat to slightly raised. These sales numbers are horrible and are only beaten historically by the sales numbers that were posted after the subprime and Alt-A market imploded and most of the lenders weren't geared up for FHA or Conventional back in the fall of 2007. Prices will continue falling with a sales pace as anemic as this. It is a post tax break sugar rush let down but the question becomes where the demand will come from? The best case scenario is everyone looking towards spring and hoping there is some level of pent up demand waiting for the first of the year to buy.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - October 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County October 2010. Based on me taking statistics a bit later than usual and adjusting for recent changes in the underlying data sources I think the Dataquick number will be around 600 for October. This is very low sales levels usually only seen around the winter months. Sellers keep cutting prices looking for buyers but its just a slow time of year (see Mortgage Purchase Applications Index for proof) so things don't look to be getting better anytime soon. Interest rates are set up to reach sub 4% levels and supply is muted and adjusting price slowly to the new reality. Stagnation appears to be the case still for the next few months (and probably beyond).

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - October 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for October 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for October. But, it appears that sales should be at the same levels as August perhaps slightly weaker.

California Shadow Inventory Report - Q3 - 2010

This is a simple graph to show the accumulation (or lack thereof) of REO inventory. When the blue line is above the green line REO inventory could be accumulating. I say "could be" because the green line is merely the number of homes sold during the quarter that were foreclosed in the past 12 months, so investors trustee flips would be captured in the data as well. I think the blue line will elevate somewhat but the two lines will stay pretty close as it makes little sense to foreclose and not market the home.I am very doubtful of the tsunami theory simply because the government has said it is not what they wish to happen and they have gone to great lengths for it not to happen. What we will have instead is stagnation in the market for a very very long time.

As you can see with the above graph, there was no great accumulation of REO's during Q3 but the spread between the two lines was at its greatest point in 5 quarters. The accumulation is about ~8000 homes. If resales stay this low and foreclosures stay this high it could be a worrying trend but as prices fall sales will pick up to absorb the excess inventory. And of course the robosigning issue could put a damper on REO supply as well.

Recontrust trustee sales

Every week I check the Recontrust page and record how many NTS and Trustee Sales are posted. You can see the latest foreclosure moratorium affecting trustee sales. The trustee sales number is the total amount of sales over the last 30 days from the date I recorded the number.

While this will mean less REO supply over the short term I don't think it will affect sales that match. Lenders have been limiting the amount of inventory they take in and they could "play catch up" if they chose to do so. I've also noted some evidence of more pre-approved short sales and short sales coming back on market after long delays which usually means the bank is responding more. This leads me to believe that the banks have shifted idle resources to work on short sales while the moratorium is in place.

San Fernando Valley home sales report - September 2010

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for September 2010 came in at 581 which is up 7.79% MoM and down 15.06% YoY. This is the twelfth straight month of YoY declines and the second worst September on record for Single Family Home sales. The median price for single family homes came in at $395,000 which is down 1.25% MoM and up 3.95% YoY. The market is completed stagnated, the administration is keeping the motivated inventory generally off the market and there is no market clearing event so sales and buyers choices will continue to be horrible going forward. New pendings last month were at levels suggesting October will come in at or below September levels.

Condo sales came in at 194 which is down 6.73% MoM and up 2.64% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $220,000 which is down 4.34% MoM and down 5.17 YoY. Relative to SFH condos have been performing better but that is because there is more motivated condo supply than SFH. Sales are still horrible in historical context, just not as bad as SFH.

Based on September pendings (green line) the predictor (red line) suggest sales for October coming in about even.

Ventura County September 2010 Home Sales

Dataquick reported home sales for Ventura County for August 2010 today. Home sales came in at 682 down 13.0% YoY and down 5.1% MoM. The median sales price came in at $370,000 down 0.5% YoY and flat MoM. I noted in my early month estimate that my normal model predicted sales of 700-720 but due to changes in the underlying data used for estimates I thought closings would come in lower and that was what in fact happened. Currently October is running at 20% below September closings month to date so this horrible performance is continuing. To put these numbers in perspective the last time numbers were worse, 2007. Countrywide had just imploded and all that was left was FHA (which few were equipped to underwrite at a large scale) and the GSE's had a $417,000 limit. Additionally prices were much higher as were interest rates so the gap between buyers and sellers was much much wider. But right now we have a $729,000 loan limit, 4% mortgage rates and lower prices and sales are anemic. Prices are still too high.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - September 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County September 2010. We are at levels which suggest flat to down sales from August but there is one caveat. The underlying data source has been undergoing some changes and I don't know how that will effect these numbers (there is more of a possibility of double counting now). So there is a possibility the numbers could come in a bit weaker than my call of 700-720 for the Dataquick Ventura sales number but I wouldn't think it would be dramatically lower (nothing lower than 650). I just don't have enough data at this point to know how the changes will effect my normal guesstimate.

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - September 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for September 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for September. But, it appears that sales should be at the same levels as August perhaps slightly weaker.

San Fernando Valley home sales report - August 2010

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for August 2010 came in at 539 which is down 8.49% MoM and down 19.55% YoY. This is the eleventh straight month of YoY declines and the WORST August on record for Single Family Home sales. The median price for single family homes came in at $400,000 which is up 0.25% MoM and down 2.83% YoY. Residential inventory is up YoY and growing. The market is completed stagnated, the administration is keeping the motivated inventory generally off the market and there is no market clearing event so sales and buyers choices will continue to be horrible going forward. New pendings last month were at levels suggesting September will come in at August levels.

Condo sales came in at 208 which is down 3.70% MoM and down 9.56% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $230,000 which is down 4.54% MoM and eevn YoY. The only strength in the market is in the condo space and I think that is due more to the amount of motivated supply (whole condo projects going defunct). Condo pendings aren't strong going forward and are at levels suggesting that September sales will look very much like August.

Based on August pendings (green line) the predictor (red line) suggest stagnant sales for September.

Ventura County August 2010 Home Sales

Dataquick reported home sales for Ventura County for August 2010 today. Home sales came in at 719 down 9.7% YoY and down 4.0% MoM. The median sales price came in at $370,000 down 1.5% YoY and flat MoM. Volume was lower from what I predicted at the beginning of the month. The anemic volume continues and looking forward to the weekly inventory pending and contingents it doesn't look like the malaise will end anytime soon. Prices will continue under pressure as a result.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - August 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County August 2010. Sales are still very low, with late reporters I expect the official Dataquick numbers will be down YoY at around 750 sales. This continued stagnation in the market is the same boring story, less supply due to government intervention trying to keep prices high at all costs. Watching the weekly inventory reports for Ventura County you can see supply building but contingents and pendings have stopped falling rapidly due to continued price cuts by sellers. If Dataquick sales do come in around 750 that would be the worst August since in at least a decade (the period for which I have data).

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - August 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for August 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for August. But, it appears that sales should be at "weakest August on record" levels. I doubt you will hear that spin in the local association press release.

San Fernando Valley home sales report - July 2010

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for July 2010 came in at 589 which is down 9.24% MoM and down 20.94% YoY. This is the tenth straight month of YoY declines and the WORST July on record for Single Family Home sales. The median price for single family homes came in at $399,000 which is up 3.64% MoM and down 0.25% YoY. Residential inventory is officially up YoY but inventory is still light. The market is completed stagnated, the administration is keeping the motivated inventory generally off the market and there is no market clearing event so sales and buyers choices will continue to be horrible going forward. New pendings last month were at levels suggesting August will come in at or slightly below July which would make for the worst August on record.

Condo sales came in at 216 which is down 17.56% MoM and up 6.40% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $220,000 which is down 4.34% MoM and down 3.50% YoY. The only strength in the market is in the condo space and I think that is due more to the amount of motivated supply (whole condo projects going defunct). Condo pendings aren't strong going forward and are at levels suggesting that August sales will look very much like July.

Based on July pendings (green line) the predictor (red line) suggest slightly lower sales for August.

I predict the NAR will be going hat in hand to Congress for another tax credit soon (probably after the elections). With sales this bad they will try to get another handout.

Ventura County July 2010 Home Sales

Dataquick reported home sales for Ventura County for July 2010 today. Home sales came in at 749 down 10.5% YoY and down 15.8% MoM. The median sales price came in at $370,000 down 5.20% YoY and 3.6% MoM. Volume was in range from what I predicted at the beginning of the month. This amounts to the worst July since back for when I have records as far as sales volume. Right now August is looking weaker but with closings weighted towards the end of the month anything can happen. I highly doubt we'd see even July level volume in August though. If you follow the weekly inventory reports for Ventura County you can see the contingents have fallen but then leveled out as sellers respond with price cuts. It looks like a long slow slog from here on out.