Monday, September 21, 2009

San Fernando Valley home sales report - August 2009

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for August 2009 came in at 670 which is down 10.07% MoM and up 0.60% YoY. The median price for single family homes came in at $389,000 which is dow 2.75% MoM and down 8.47% YoY. Sales continue to be horrible with this being the third worst August on record only missing being the 2nd worst sales on record by 5 sales. We have an interesting market dynamic, sales continue to be cratered but inventory is dropping. Few discretionary sales because sellers feel like they don't want to sell in a down market and are hoping beyond hope that somehow things will get better than ultra-low 5% interest rates and a tax credit. Few short sales because the banks are slow in responding (This might change soon, I'll post on why later). Few REOs because the administration has made them verboten. This is not a functioning market but one on life support. Reality has been suspended until Uncle Sam decides otherwise.

Condo sales came in at 230 which is up 13.30% MoM and up 33.72% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $230,000 which is up .88% MoM and down 16.36% YoY. Condo sales are doing a bit better right now than SFH sales. I think the lack of affordable SFH inventory has pushed desperate buyers wanting to cash in on the tax credit to consider condos but that is supposition on my part.

The red line is my predictor line for next months sales. There has been a disconnect since May on the predictor overpredicting sales. It could be the longer underwriting time lines is messing it up or some other variable I haven't accounted for. If pendings slow and the predictor line drops below reported sales I will know the longer time lines are affecting the prediction and make adjustments.

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